Every society eventually reaches a moment when its past achievements confront its present realities. For the South West, that moment is now. This is the region that gave Nigeria its earliest taste of modern governance, from pioneering free education to building Africa’s first television station. It was here that leadership once meant vision rather than survival, and where institutions were designed not just for today but for generations unborn. Yet the 2025 Phillips Consulting State Performance Index (pSPI), which I have been analysing region by region over the past weeks, reveals a sobering truth. The South West, despite its cultural prestige and economic weight, is no longer sprinting ahead. It is jogging on the strength of history, admired for what it was rather than what it is becoming.
The region’s six states — Lagos, Ogun, Oyo, Ondo, Osun, and Ekiti — stand as a paradox of promise and complacency. Lagos dominates but strains under its own weight. Ogun thrives on industrial proximity but risks dependency. Oyo clings to its intellectual legacy without transforming it. Ondo, Osun, and Ekiti tell quieter stories of potential deferred. The data does not condemn the South West to decline, but it does warn that inheritance is not the same as progress
Lagos: Giant with Fragile Feet
Lagos sits among the highest performers in the pSPI, its place secured by scale and commerce. As Nigeria’s commercial capital and Africa’s largest city, it exerts gravitational pull on the entire country. Yet the very size that fuels its strength exposes its weaknesses. Infrastructure is stretched thin, traffic cripples productivity, and basic services often lag behind demand. Citizen perception reflects the strain: people admire Lagos’s energy but lament its dysfunction.
In many ways, Lagos resembles Rome at the height of empire. Wealthy, bustling, and cosmopolitan, yet precarious beneath the surface. Its dynamism comes not from flawless governance but from the ingenuity of its people — traders, migrants, and entrepreneurs who sustain its energy despite official shortcomings. But momentum is not infinite. Unless Lagos fully embraces inclusivity, digitises governance, and reinvests in human capital, it may find its grandeur eroded by neglect.
Ogun and Oyo: Between Dependency and Drift
Ogun has carved a niche as an industrial hinterland, benefitting from proximity to Lagos. Its factories and estates position it well, but the question lingers: is it growing independently or merely feeding off Lagos’s overflow? History offers a warning in the story of medieval Flanders, which flourished on trade yet remained hostage to external shifts it did not control. Ogun must avoid becoming a satellite. Its future depends on broadening into technology, agro-processing, and creative industries that root its strength within its own boundaries.
Oyo, by contrast, carries the weight of heritage. Ibadan once embodied intellectual vibrancy, home to the University of Ibadan and the political nerve of Western Nigeria. Yet the pSPI places Oyo squarely in the middle, signalling drift. The state resembles Athens after its golden age: proud of past brilliance, but hesitant in present ambition. For Oyo to rise, it must revive its agriculture, modernise Ibadan into a genuine knowledge hub, and invest strategically in industries aligned with its educational resources. History will not reward nostalgia; it will only reward renewal.
Ondo, Osun, and Ekiti: Promise Deferred
Ondo should be an economic powerhouse. It has fertile farmland, vast bitumen reserves, and a coastline that could serve as a trade hub. Yet inconsistent governance has kept it underwhelming in the pSPI. Like Venice after the decline of its maritime empire, Ondo seems to know what it once could have been but struggles to reinvent itself for a different age. Without strategic clarity, its assets remain dormant treasures.
Osun lives with similar contradictions. Its cultural heritage is globally renowned, from the Osun-Osogbo grove to Yoruba festivals, but governance has not converted culture into industry. The state is burdened with debt and fragile services. Osun resembles Florence in its waning years, rich in history but lacking modern relevance. Culture alone cannot employ youths or fund infrastructure; it must be treated as economic strategy, not nostalgia.
Ekiti’s case is more poignant. Its intellectual capital is unmatched, giving it the proud label of “Fountain of Knowledge.” Yet it ranks low in the pSPI because its economy is shallow, dependent on federal allocations, and unable to retain its brightest minds. Ekiti mirrors the small republics of Renaissance Italy, brilliant in scholarship but vulnerable without economic depth. Unless it links its education to industries and embraces innovation in agriculture and digital enterprise, its knowledge will continue to be exported while its economy remains hollow.
The Drift from Leadership
The South West’s greatest weakness is its drift from the leadership it once embodied. Under Awolowo, Western Nigeria pioneered policies that placed it ahead of its peers: free education, industrial estates, agricultural innovation, and Africa’s first television station. These achievements were not accidental; they came from vision, discipline, and moral clarity. Yet the successors of that era have been content with maintenance rather than transformation. Institutions remain, but urgency has been lost.
The pSPI confirms this drift. Apart from Lagos, most states sit in the middle of the rankings, indistinguishable from their peers in other regions. This should alarm a zone that once led by miles. Byzantium survived for centuries after Rome, but it declined into ritual and irrelevance by neglecting reform. The South West risks a similar fate.
Citizen perception underscores the danger. Lagos is admired but resented for its harshness. Ogun is seen as dependent, Oyo as nostalgic, Ondo as stagnant, Osun as fragile, and Ekiti as struggling. Trust is uneven, and without trust, legitimacy weakens. A region that aspires to lead Nigeria must first secure the confidence of its own citizens.
A Roadmap for Renewal
If the South West is to reclaim its role, it must do so with urgency. First, it must reassert education as its crown jewel. Schools and universities must not only exist but innovate, producing graduates equipped for technology, renewable energy, and creative industries. Knowledge must once again be power, not pride alone.
Second, the region must integrate its infrastructure. Rail, roads, power, and digital networks must bind Lagos, Ibadan, Abeokuta, Akure, Osogbo, and Ado-Ekiti into a unified corridor of productivity. Fragmentation weakens, while synergy transforms. The Rhine Valley of Europe demonstrates how connected economies create prosperity greater than their parts.
Third, fiscal responsibility must be restored. States cannot afford to drown in debt without growth strategies. Budgets must be transparent, participatory, and accountable. Credibility lies not in rhetoric but in delivery.
Fourth, the economy must diversify. Agriculture, agro-processing, creative industries, digital innovation, and tourism are not options but necessities. The Yoruba cultural legacy is more than heritage; it is a living economic asset.
Above all, leadership must rediscover vision. The South West once defined modern governance in Africa. It can do so again, but only if it refuses to live on inheritance and begins to craft a future worthy of its past. The pSPI has revealed the mirror: Lagos strong but strained, Ogun dependent, Oyo hesitant, Ondo underperforming, Osun fragile, and Ekiti vulnerable. A region that should lead cannot afford complacency. The choice is clear. Either the South West rediscovers its urgency, or it will watch its legacy erode into memory.
