Introduction
The nationwide bye-election of 16th August, 2025 has been described as a mini-referendum ahead of the 2027 general election. While the contests took place across several constituencies in Nigeria, the Ibadan North Local Government bye-election in Oyo State stands out as a defining case study. The result of this election is not just about a local seat; it speaks volumes about the strength of the All Progressives Congress (APC) in Oyo State, the dominance of the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) at the state level, and the wider political climate that will shape 2027.
This analysis argues that, beyond Ibadan North, the message is clear: only President Bola Ahmed Tinubu (PBAT) — with his strategic leadership, political machinery, and capacity for grassroots mobilization — can rescue Oyo State from the grip of PDP ahead of the next general elections.
Context: Oyo State Politics at a Crossroads
Oyo State, historically known as the political headquarters of the South-West, has always played a crucial role in Nigeria’s democratic trajectory. From the days of Chief Obafemi Awolowo to the rise of progressive forces under the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) and eventually the APC, Oyo has never been a state to ignore.
Yet, in 2019 and 2023, the APC failed to consolidate power in Oyo, losing the governorship to the PDP. Today, Governor Seyi Makinde is serving his second term under the PDP, consolidating his influence not only in Oyo but also nationally. The absence of a cohesive APC structure in the state, coupled with internal wrangling and lack of national-level support, has weakened the party.
This is why the Ibadan North bye-election of August 16, 2025 becomes significant. It was not merely about electing a House of Representatives member; it was a test of APC’s resilience in Oyo and a barometer of what the future holds for the opposition in the state.
The Ibadan North Bye-Election: A Case Study
The bye-election in Ibadan North Local Government — one of the largest and politically vibrant LGAs in Oyo State — was occasioned by the passing of the sitting member. The contest drew unusual national attention because of Ibadan North’s strategic importance:
1. Demographic Weight: Ibadan North is one of the most populous LGAs in Nigeria, with a diverse electorate. Whoever wins here demonstrates capacity to appeal across demographics.
2. Symbolic Value: Historically, Ibadan North has been the base of intellectuals, students, civil servants, and professionals — a microcosm of Oyo’s political culture.
3. Political Implication: A win in Ibadan North sends signals about the strength of the party ahead of the 2027 general election.
In this bye-election, APC showed flashes of revival. Though challenged by PDP’s incumbency and resources, the APC candidate held ground remarkably well. This performance is significant in a state where the PDP has entrenched itself since 2019.
Lessons from Ibadan NorthThe outcome of the bye-election provides several lessons:
1. APC Still Has a Base: Despite the current disunity and lack of empowerment from the APC national body, the grassroots still turned out for the party. This indicates that APC is not dead in Oyo — it only needs strategic nurturing.
2. The PDP Advantage Can Be Overturned: While Governor Makinde’s incumbency is strong, his party is not invincible. The Ibadan North results show that APC can challenge PDP’s dominance if properly coordinated.
3. The Need for National Intervention: Without deliberate support from the APC national structure, the Oyo State chapter will continue to operate at a disadvantage. The bye-election exposed this neglect.
The Bigger Picture: Nationwide Bye-Elections
Across Nigeria, the August 16 bye-elections were seen as litmus tests. They revealed three things:
The electorate remains restless: Nigerians are looking for results, not excuses.
PDP and other opposition parties smell opportunities: They want to exploit APC’s internal weaknesses.
The APC’s survival depends on unity and central coordination: Fragmentation will be fatal in 2027.
For Oyo State, the message is sharper: only PBAT has the political clout to mobilize the APC, reconcile factions, and deliver victory in 2027.
PBAT as the Rescue Factor
President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, widely regarded as the architect of modern progressive politics in Nigeria, remains the decisive factor in the South-West. His political genius lies in building alliances, mobilizing grassroots support, and delivering electoral victories where others see impossibility.
Why is PBAT crucial for Oyo?
1. Legacy of South-West Progressive Politics: Tinubu understands that losing Oyo weakens the progressive bloc in the South-West. Rescuing Oyo is not just about APC’s survival; it is about preserving the ideological identity of the region.
2. Capacity to Empower Local Structures: The current complaint among APC members in Oyo is lack of empowerment. PBAT has both the resources and influence to correct this imbalance.
3. Master of Electoral Strategy: If Tinubu could wrestle Lagos into a progressive fortress and later build a national coalition that dethroned PDP in 2015, he can certainly reposition Oyo ahead of 2027.
The Road to 2027: Strategic Recommendations
If APC must capitalize on the lessons of Ibadan North and prepare for 2027, several steps are necessary:
1. National Support for Oyo APC: The national leadership must invest in Oyo, not abandon it. Resources, appointments, and recognition should flow to motivate the grassroots.
2. Unity of Purpose: APC factions in Oyo must reconcile. Division only strengthens PDP. PBAT must personally intervene to ensure reconciliation.
3. Grassroots Mobilization: The APC must re-engage traditional structures — community leaders, youth groups, women networks, and student movements. The Ibadan North bye-election proved that the base exists; it must be deepened.
4. Candidate Selection for 2027: APC must prioritize credible, popular, and grassroots-friendly candidates over impositions. A wrong choice will cost the party dearly.
5. Issue-Based Campaigns: Oyo people want solutions to insecurity, unemployment, poor infrastructure, and education decay. APC must present itself as the credible alternative.
Beyond Ibadan North: Statewide Implications
The significance of the August 16 bye-election goes beyond Ibadan North. It sends a message to other LGAs: APC can fight back. If the momentum is sustained, the 2027 general election could be a turning point.
In Ibadan South-West, Ibadan South-East, and Egbeda, the PDP advantage is not unassailable.
In Oyo, Ogbomoso, and Oke-Ogun zones, APC can leverage historical loyalties if empowered.
The student population in Ibadan North and Ibarapa remains a key bloc that APC can win with the right policies.
Conclusion
The nationwide bye-election of 16th August 2025, particularly the Ibadan North contest, is more than a political footnote. It is a signal flare, illuminating both the challenges and opportunities ahead of the 2027 general elections.
The verdict is unmistakable: APC in Oyo is struggling but not defeated. With decisive leadership, strategic investment, and grassroots mobilization, the party can rebound. But this can only happen if PBAT personally intervenes to rescue the situation.
For APC, Ibadan North was a warning. For Oyo State, it was a glimpse of hope. For Nigeria, it was a reminder that democracy thrives when competition remains alive.
As we march toward 2027, the task is clear: only PBAT can rescue Oyo State. And the journey to that rescue began on 16th August 2025 in Ibadan North.
Balogun Gaphar Babatunde Ojetola GAIC writes from Ibadan ojetola@gmail.com
